The recent elections in the Netherlands have resulted in a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, potentially impacting Montenegro’s aspirations for European Union membership. The anti-Islamic party led by Gert Wilders suffered a notable loss, while the centrist D66 party gained substantial support. This election outcome could influence the EU’s stance on expansion, particularly regarding Montenegro’s goal of becoming a full member by 2028.
Historically, the Netherlands has been one of the EU member states most skeptical about the bloc’s enlargement. The new government, likely led by Rob Jetten of D66, might play a crucial role in shaping Montenegro’s EU integration journey. An analysis from the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG) suggests that the negotiations to form a coalition will be pivotal in determining whether the Netherlands adopts a critical yet constructive attitude towards expansion or remains openly skeptical.
Voter turnout in the recent elections exceeded 78 percent, laying the groundwork for what is expected to be a protracted series of coalition negotiations in The Hague. This process could extend for months, and the outcome will be critical for Montenegro. Analysts predict that a favorable scenario for Montenegro could involve a left-centre coalition, with D66 joining forces with the Christian Democrats (CDA) and the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), alongside the Green Left and Labour Party (GL-PvdA).
Previously, the Netherlands has blocked EU accession negotiations for Albania in 2019 and delayed visa liberalization for Kosovo, despite recommendations from the European Commission. Although the Dutch government does not outright reject EU expansion, its stringent approach towards candidate countries stems partly from political skepticism towards the EU within its political landscape.
Despite agreeing to the EU’s stance on enlargement as a “geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability, and prosperity,” Dutch politicians have emphasized the necessity of strict adherence to rule of law and merit-based accession processes. Consequently, the Netherlands tends to prioritize a well-functioning EU over geopolitical imperatives for further expansion. As Montenegro navigates its path towards EU membership, it must closely monitor Dutch political dynamics and the potential for a veto against new member states.
While Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) is expected to move into opposition, four of the five leading political groups support the accession of new EU members, either directly or conditionally. D66 advocates for expansion, particularly for Ukraine, while the coalition between the Labour Party and the Greens promotes active support for candidate countries, excluding Turkey, and endorses gradual integration. The CDA and VVD stress strict compliance with the Copenhagen criteria in their party programs and highlight the need for increased cooperation with candidate countries while maintaining a credible accession perspective.
A coalition of D66, CDA, VVD, and possibly the more radical JA21 and the agricultural party BBB could pave the way for a more proactive Dutch role in Brussels and greater support for EU enlargement, provided necessary reforms are implemented to safeguard the rule of law within the Union, which could expand to over 30 member states.
If D66 enters a coalition with the right-wing parties, the next government may adopt a more reserved approach towards EU expansion and broader EU policies. Regardless of which coalition emerges, challenging and lengthy negotiations are anticipated, with the likelihood that the Netherlands will maintain a relatively critical stance on EU enlargement.
Nevertheless, while EU expansion rarely features as a priority in Dutch political discourse, a centrist coalition government is unlikely to block the accession of candidate countries if isolated in the European Council. For Montenegro, which is keenly interested in EU integration, it is crucial to present clear arguments for its accession to all member states, emphasizing its strategic importance to the region.
