A recent survey indicates a significant decline in confidence within the UK rail market, prompting many companies to freeze recruitment or reduce staff. The Railway Industry Association (RIA) commissioned the survey, which involved 125 railway business leaders and was conducted by independent polling company Savanta between October and November 2025.
The findings reveal that 64% of rail business leaders anticipate a contraction in the market over the next year, a notable increase from 48% in a similar survey conducted in 2024. In contrast, only 12% of respondents expect growth, down from 26% the previous year. The situation is compounded by the fact that 62% of rail businesses are either halting recruitment or cutting their workforce, with 34% reporting redundancies. Furthermore, 85% of leaders believe there will be a significant pause in rail projects over the coming year.
In response to these challenges, companies are prioritizing work outside the UK and adopting hiring freezes. Despite this, the percentage of leaders expecting their businesses to contract in the next year has decreased slightly by six percentage points to 23%, while those anticipating growth fell by two percentage points to 44%.
RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan characterized the survey’s results as “concerning.” He noted, “Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling and businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount.” Caplan acknowledged that some businesses are still optimistic about their growth potential, particularly in international markets.
The RIA has long raised concerns about the cyclical nature of investment in rail infrastructure and rolling stock. Caplan emphasized the urgent need for government action to bolster market confidence. “This survey is further evidence that more needs to be done to give rail suppliers the confidence they need to compete for work and invest in their business plans and teams for 2026,” he stated. He warned that without such measures, the industry risks losing talented individuals to other sectors and overseas opportunities.
Caplan expressed hope for the future of UK rail, highlighting significant projects such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, and the Docklands Light Rail extension. However, he stressed that immediate steps must be taken to restore confidence in the market.
To address these pressing issues, Caplan called on the government to provide clearer details regarding rail enhancement projects outlined in its Infrastructure Pipeline. He urged for a comprehensive rolling stock strategy and a transparent funding approach, whether through private or third-party resources. Additionally, he emphasized the need for major rail clients to outline their short- and medium-term spending plans, especially following the government’s Spending Review and Budget priorities.
Implementing these strategies could help alleviate the current confidence challenges facing the rail industry, ensuring that suppliers have the certainty they need as the sector restructures and as Great British Railways is established in the coming years.
