The United States is intensifying its efforts to disrupt the oil trade between Venezuela and Cuba, aiming to destabilize the regime of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has underscored the significance of this strategy, emphasizing that cutting off material support to Cuba is crucial for undermining Maduro’s hold on power. This approach reflects a broader policy of “gunboat diplomacy” in the Caribbean, targeting both nations in a bid for regime change.
During the first term of former President Donald Trump, there was a pivotal moment when the Maduro regime seemed vulnerable, largely due to U.S. pressure. However, support from Cuba helped stabilize Maduro’s government at that time. Juan S. Gonzalez, who served as a senior aide for Western Hemisphere affairs under President Joe Biden, noted, “Their theory of change involves cutting off all support to Cuba. Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow.”
Recent reports from The New York Times, authored by Michael Crowley and Edward Wong, detail the seizure of the tanker Skipper, which was transporting crude oil contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil company. This vessel is integral to how Cuba benefits from Venezuelan oil, with internal data from Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, indicating that the Skipper was headed to the Cuban port of Matanzas.
After departing, the Skipper transferred approximately 50,000 barrels of oil to another ship, the Neptune 6, which then continued to Cuba. Subsequently, the Skipper redirected to Asia with most of its cargo still on board, as confirmed by a U.S. official familiar with the situation. The longstanding arrangement between Venezuela and Cuba has seen oil shipped at subsidized prices for decades, providing a vital resource to the economically challenged island. In exchange, Cuba has dispatched thousands of medical professionals and security personnel to Venezuela, with the latter increasingly relying on Cuban bodyguards and counterintelligence experts for protection against U.S. military actions.
Despite the historical flow of Venezuelan oil to Cuba, recent documents from PDVSA and tanker tracking data reveal that only a small fraction of the allocated oil has actually reached the island. Instead, significant amounts have been redirected to China, generating necessary hard currency for the Cuban government. Central to this intricate trade is Ramón Carretero, a Panamanian businessman identified as a key player in managing oil transactions between Venezuela and Cuba. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Carretero for facilitating shipments on behalf of the Venezuelan government. He did not provide a comment on the sanctions or respond to inquiries regarding his operations.
The Skipper’s involvement with Iranian oil shipments prior to its current role further complicates the situation. For four years, the tanker was part of a covert fleet transporting Iranian oil to Syria and China, according to shipping data firm Kpler and an anonymous senior Iranian oil ministry official. Analysts suggest that the Trump administration aims to disrupt the substantial crude oil flow from Venezuela to Cuba and China, potentially triggering significant economic consequences across the region.
As the U.S. continues to implement this strategy, the implications for both Cuba and Venezuela could be profound. The disruption of oil supplies could lead to economic collapse in Cuba, simultaneously weakening Maduro’s regime. So far, Beijing has refrained from retaliatory actions following the seizure of the Skipper and the interruptions in crude shipments to Asia. The ability of the U.S. to navigate these complexities remains to be seen, particularly regarding how it affects future diplomatic engagements with China.
