Schools across England are expressing serious concerns regarding a potential funding shortfall, with estimates suggesting a drop of approximately £400 per pupil. This alarming prospect follows a recent announcement from the government that it will take on the financial burden of special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), which has escalated dramatically due to an increase in autism and ADHD diagnoses.
In the latest Budget, the Chancellor revealed that from the fiscal year 2028-29, local councils will no longer be required to run deficits to cover SEND costs. Instead, central government will manage these “future funding implications.” However, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) indicated that the government has not clarified how it intends to finance this initiative, which is expected to start at a cost of £6.3 billion annually.
The OBR’s analysis highlights that if the Department for Education (DfE), currently led by Bridget Phillipson, were to absorb these costs, it could result in a 4.9 per cent real decline in mainstream school funding per pupil. This decline contradicts the government’s planned increase of 0.5 per cent.
A reduction of 4.9 per cent translates to a substantial loss, amounting to roughly £400 yearly for each student. While the Department for Education has disputed these claims, asserting that the additional funding will come from the broader government budget, there is significant skepticism among education leaders.
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), voiced strong concerns, stating, “Several local authorities are seemingly at risk of financial collapse as a result of deficits relating to SEND spending. Were this risk to be transferred onto schools, in the form of budget cuts to cover the cost of SEND provision being absorbed into departmental spending, it would be catastrophic.”
The situation is particularly urgent, with the number of pupils eligible for council-funded SEND support having soared by 80 per cent since 2019. This surge is primarily driven by increased diagnoses of autism and ADHD. The impending fiscal pressures are expected to culminate in 2028-29 when councils will be obliged to account for these deficits in their budgets, a situation that has previously been masked by a “statutory override.”
The Budget document also indicated that the government plans to release further details on how it will address historic and accumulating deficits. Nevertheless, the OBR has pointed out that the statutory override will end in 2028-29, potentially resulting in local authorities facing a cumulative deficit of £14 billion. Many councils may struggle to meet their balanced budget requirements as a consequence.
According to a report from the County Councils Network, up to 59 local authorities could face total financial collapse if deficits of approximately £18 billion are officially recognized. The Local Government Association has urged the government to consider writing off these deficits during the upcoming Local Government Finance Settlement.
On this matter, a spokesperson for the DfE reiterated that claims regarding budget cuts impacting schools are inaccurate, insisting that deficits will be managed within the overall government budget. They emphasized that upcoming SEND reforms would also be taken into account.
In addition to these significant funding discussions, the Budget included announcements for an extra £5 million in 2026-27 for new books in secondary schools and £18 million over two years to enhance 200 playgrounds across England.
As the situation develops, education leaders and local authorities are calling for urgent clarity on how the government intends to manage the fiscal implications of the SEND crisis, which continues to pressure both schools and local councils alike.
