A new report from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) projects nearly 23 million additional deaths worldwide by 2030, primarily due to significant cuts in foreign aid by countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Published in the respected journal The Lancet, the study highlights the consequences of aid reductions in 93 nations, notably affecting 38 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report estimates that approximately 22.6 million extra deaths will occur as a direct consequence of these aid cuts. Alarmingly, this figure includes around 5.4 million children under the age of five, leading to characterizations of the situation as a “humanitarian catastrophe.”
Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation, which contributed funding to the study, emphasized the moral implications of these findings. “These findings give a voice to millions of vulnerable people and show the profound moral cost of the zero-sum approach many political leaders are taking,” he stated. Dr. Shah, a former administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), highlighted the urgent need for action, noting that the full impact of aid cuts will take years to assess.
The ISGlobal report examined the implications of aid reductions across various regions, including 21 countries in Asia, 12 in Latin America, 12 in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10 in Europe. The research draws on two decades of development data from these nations, collectively home to approximately 6.3 billion people.
Notably, the study reveals that from 2002 to 2021, overseas aid contributed to a 39 percent reduction in child mortality, a 70 percent decrease in HIV/AIDS deaths, and a 56 percent drop in deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies.
Lisa Wise, director of global outcomes at Save the Children, commented on the severe repercussions of aid cuts. “This analysis confirms what we’re already seeing: cuts to aid are not just budget decisions, they are death sentences for children. Aid cuts are already forcing us to close health clinics and nutrition programmes,” she stated, adding that these reductions jeopardize protections for vulnerable groups and essential climate initiatives.
As international aid fell for the first time in six years in 2024, countries including the US, UK, France, and Germany implemented significant reductions in their aid budgets. The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) anticipates that aid could decline by as much as 18 percent between 2024 and 2025.
One of the most detrimental actions was the closure of USAID, which disrupted funding for numerous projects mid-way through their execution. This abrupt cessation has severely impacted climate resilience and healthcare systems in developing nations. Previous research from ISGlobal indicated that dismantling USAID alone could lead to over 14 million preventable deaths by 2030.
In the UK, the government has reduced its aid budget from 0.5 to 0.3 percent of Gross National Income by 2027. The development sector is currently awaiting details regarding the specific areas affected by these cuts, with announcements expected later in February.
Davide Rasella, coordinator of the ISGlobal research, stated, “Our analyses show that development assistance is among the most effective global health interventions available. Withdrawing this support now would not only reverse hard-won progress, but would translate directly into millions of preventable adult and child deaths in the coming years.”
The report’s stark findings are corroborated by numerous accounts of devastating cuts to aid programs over the past year. Magnus Corfixen, humanitarian lead for Oxfam GB, emphasized the immediate impact of these reductions. “Every aspect of people’s lives is being affected. Food, clean water and healthcare are not choices or luxuries – they are fundamental human rights,” he noted.
Corfixen further commented on the implications of aid cuts regarding the climate crisis, stating, “When aid is cut, communities aren’t just losing funding – they’re losing the very tools that help them adapt to a climate crisis they did not create.”
This report underscores the urgent need for re-evaluation of international aid strategies to prevent a looming humanitarian disaster.
