Scottish National Party (SNP) leader John Swinney is preparing for what could become one of the most independence-focused election campaigns in the party’s history. With the upcoming Holyrood elections in May 2024, Swinney has shifted the SNP’s emphasis back to its foundational mission of Scottish independence. He asserts that achieving an overall majority is essential for securing a second independence referendum, commonly referred to as indyref2.
Swinney has clearly stated that winning 65 seats is crucial. If successful, he plans to engage in an aggressive campaign against the UK Government to demand a referendum. Conversely, falling short of this target could jeopardize his strategy and diminish the party’s momentum. The challenges ahead are significant; prospects for the SNP to regain a majority after nearly two decades in power are slim. While Scottish Green co-leader Ross Greer estimated the SNP’s chances at “less than 1%,” some analysts believe the reality is slightly more favorable, though still daunting.
Even Nicola Sturgeon, who has been cautious in her comments about her successor, described Swinney’s ambitions as “ambitious.” This suggests that while there may be some optimism, many within the party recognize the uphill battle ahead. Recently, the pro-independence Greens announced they would limit their candidacy to a small number of constituencies, which could assist the SNP in first-past-the-post contests. Still, achieving that coveted 65-seat majority remains a monumental task for a government facing scrutiny.
Swinney’s strategy has personal stakes. A successful campaign would position him as a significant player in reshaping Scottish politics, potentially putting pressure on a beleaguered UK Labour Government. This government, currently facing numerous scandals, would risk being perceived as obstructing democracy should they reject calls for indyref2 outright.
Conversely, if the SNP fails to secure the necessary seats, Swinney might find a path to exit the political arena gracefully. He had initially contemplated retirement when Humza Yousaf took over as First Minister. Should the SNP fall short of its majority, he could step back, citing a high bar for independence and a need for new leadership. His potential resignation speech might highlight his dedication while emphasizing the need for a fresh direction for the party.
The risks associated with Swinney’s independence strategy extend beyond his personal ambitions. Current opinion polls indicate that while there is a pro-independence sentiment among the public, it may not translate into an outright victory for the SNP. Should the party fail to secure a majority, the independence movement could face significant stagnation. If Swinney’s leadership ties the party’s hands, it may hinder its ability to adapt under new leadership, such as Stephen Flynn or Mairi McAllan.
Party insiders have indicated that neither Flynn nor McAllan could alter the mandate for indyref2 without necessitating another Holyrood election. The SNP has thrived on the perception that a second referendum is imminent, with previous leaders creating expectations around the issue. If independence discussions were to be sidelined for an extended period, it could lead to internal strife within the party.
As Swinney approaches this pivotal election, the stakes are high. While there may be potential for a partial victory, the implications for the SNP could be profound. The party’s future depends not only on the election results but also on how effectively it navigates the challenges inherent in its independence strategy.
