A recent poll suggests that Nigel Farage’s aspirations for a position at No 10 Downing Street may face significant obstacles from left-wing tactical voting. Conducted by BMG Research for The i Paper, the survey indicates that voters aligned with the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, and Green Party are increasingly open to voting strategically in order to prevent Reform UK from gaining power.
The survey revealed a marked willingness among left-leaning voters to consider tactical voting. Specifically, 64 percent of typical Labour supporters expressed readiness to vote for a different party to block an opposing candidate, a sentiment echoed by 61 percent of Green voters and 57 percent of Liberal Democrat supporters. In contrast, only 38 percent of Reform voters and 48 percent of Conservative voters indicated they would engage in such voting behavior.
This trend poses a challenge for Farage, as evidence emerges of lifelong Labour supporters potentially shifting their votes to other parties in a bid to keep Reform UK from winning seats in the upcoming elections. By voting for alternatives, these voters aim to increase their chances of achieving a favorable overall election result.
Polling data reflects a decline in support for Reform UK, which now stands at 27 percent, down five percentage points from the previous poll conducted in January. Labour remains steady at 20 percent, while the Conservatives have increased to 18 percent. The Greens and Liberal Democrats have both seen slight increases to 14 percent and 12 percent, respectively. The Greens’ recent electoral success in the Gorton and Denton by-election, where they defeated Reform UK, represents a significant moment for the party, marking the highest voting intention recorded in a BMG poll.
Despite these challenges, Reform UK downplayed the impact of tactical voting. A senior party source suggested that progressive voters might struggle to identify the best anti-Reform candidate amid the complexities of a general election. They characterized the recent by-election results as positive for Reform, arguing that the Greens would not easily concede ground to Labour in the future.
As Jack Curry, a pollster at BMG, noted, the enthusiasm for tactical voting appears uneven across the political landscape. He emphasized that the growing anti-Reform sentiment among voters is noteworthy and may influence the dynamics of the upcoming election.
Curry stated, “As the possibility of Reform entering government becomes more widely discussed and their platform is set out in more detail, some voters seem increasingly motivated not just by who they want to win, but by who they want to keep out.”
He further remarked that tactical coordination among Labour, Green, and Liberal Democrat voters could present significant challenges for Reform in contested regions. However, he cautioned that fragmentation on the left side of the political spectrum could complicate efforts to consolidate anti-Reform votes.
The exclusive poll conducted by BMG Research surveyed a representative sample of 1,503 adults in Great Britain from March 4-5, 2024, providing an insightful snapshot of the current electoral landscape as the country approaches its next general election.
