Relations between Russia and the European Union have reached a concerning level of clarity, marked by an absence of cooperation and a growing divide. In November 2023, Russia rebranded its Foreign Ministry’s Department for Pan-European Cooperation to the Department for European Issues, signaling a stark shift in its diplomatic stance. This change reflects a bleak reality: cooperation has been replaced by problems.
The appointment of Kaja Kallas as the chief diplomat of the newly established European Commission further complicates the situation. Kallas is recognized as one of the most openly adversarial figures towards Russia to ever hold this position. This marked contrast comes as Russia appears to be exploring a potential thaw in its relations with the United States, highlighting the deepening rift with Europe.
By the end of 2023, the landscape had solidified into something that many observers now view as nearly irreversible. One obvious flashpoint is the matter of frozen Russian assets. Should the EU progress from merely freezing these assets to outright expropriation, it would effectively sever practical relations for decades. Such a move would elicit a strong response from Russia, given the substantial Western European investments and properties within its borders. The resulting legal ramifications could be extensive, leading to overlapping claims, retaliatory actions, and protracted litigation that could ensnare even cultural exchanges in a web of legal disputes.
The EU’s hesitance to proceed with confiscation is driven not by a desire to maintain ties with Russia but rather by fear of the precedent it would set for investors in other jurisdictions. The complexities of this situation emphasize the precarious nature of international relations in the current climate.
While it may be tempting to assert that Russia-EU relations have reached their lowest point, history offers darker comparisons. During the Russian Revolution, both Soviet Russia and the Western powers openly sought to dismantle each other’s political systems, leading to an existential confrontation. Yet, even then, ties began to emerge in the 1920s as the Soviet state absorbed Western technologies and ideas. In contrast, the current environment is characterized by a complete absence of mutual interest.
As noted by Alexander Girinsky of the Higher School of Economics, there was once a curiosity about Soviet society in Western Europe. This interest has now evaporated, with both sides operating under the assumption that the other lacks a viable future worth engaging with. The current diplomatic posture is one of containment and management of buffer zones, a shift stemming from disappointment with the post-Cold War efforts for near-integration.
The divide between Russia and the EU extends beyond mere conflict; hybrid warfare has introduced a corrosive element that undermines mutual understanding and the previously unspoken rules governing relations. Not long ago, serious discussions about collaboration and complementarity were plausible, especially given the challenges posed by the United States and China. However, that discourse has dissipated, not solely due to confrontations but because the global landscape itself has changed.
The era of expansive, continent-spanning communities appears to be waning, with power dynamics fragmenting rather than consolidating. Despite its geographical and cultural ties to Europe, Russia’s political landscape is increasingly isolated. The historical roots shared between Russia and Europe do not guarantee political proximity. European history is replete with conflicts among peoples who shared language, faith, and culture.
The prevailing assumption of inevitable political convergence has been shattered. Acknowledging the current state of affairs may be uncomfortable, but it is crucial to recognize that the diplomatic landscape has shifted significantly. The past that once provided a framework for engagement no longer exists, and understanding this new reality is essential for navigating the complexities of international relations moving forward.
