The Conservative Party is grappling with internal divisions as leaders attempt to reclaim their relevance following a significant electoral setback in 2024. Under the leadership of Kemi Badenoch, the party managed to secure only 121 seats and 24 percent of the popular vote, marking its worst performance in history. Despite some signs of recovery, including Badenoch’s recent exchanges with Sir Keir Starmer, the Conservatives have struggled to maintain support, averaging below 20 percent in recent opinion polls.
Many within the party see potential for recovery, pointing to the Labour Party‘s waning popularity and the challenges posed by the Green Party. Despite these factors, the Conservative MPs and activists remain divided on the strategy to regain voter support. Badenoch’s approach appears focused on appealing to Conservative voters who have shifted allegiance to Reform UK, while also steering the party rightward on crucial issues such as immigration and climate policy. Key proposals include withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and abandoning the target for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Emerging Voices Challenge Party Direction
Centrist Conservatives, previously sidelined, are beginning to mobilize. A newly formed group named Prosper UK, led by Ruth Davidson, the former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, aims to advocate for a “practical, centre-right approach.” Their objective is to reclaim the coalition of voters responsible for David Cameron‘s election win in 2015, despite the rise of Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK. Davidson emphasized the urgency of their mission, stating, “Getting rid of this s**t Labour government would be the ultimate goal.”
Prosper UK is actively engaging voters and hosting business events across the UK. The group plans to produce policy papers addressing economic strategies, housing, and intergenerational fairness, with aspirations of influencing the next Conservative manifesto ahead of the next general election, which must take place by 2029. Davidson noted, “On some of these areas we are very clear we will say some things that are probably quite challenging to the current leadership, and that’s OK.”
The emergence of Prosper UK signals a potential clash with the existing leadership as it seeks to redefine the party’s direction.
Debates on Strategy and Voter Recovery
Among the 116 Conservative MPs remaining in Parliament, there is limited dissent regarding Badenoch’s strategy of addressing voters who have moved to Reform. Many believe that reinforcing the Conservatives’ economic credentials may be the party’s strongest asset against Farage’s platform. Davidson expressed confidence that a centrist approach would not deter voters. Yet, she cautioned against the notion that the party could win back support simply by adopting a “Reform-lite” stance.
Polling data from a survey conducted by More in Common for Prosper UK indicates that nearly one-third of voters who left the Conservatives since the 2024 election have switched to Reform, while another fifth support Labour or the Liberal Democrats. A significant portion remains undecided. These findings suggest that a centrist pivot might be more beneficial than a hard right turn.
Opinions within the party vary significantly. James Johnson, a former adviser to Theresa May, argued that the Conservatives must rebuild their base on the right to regain power. He cautioned, “This idea of pivoting to the centre just doesn’t work, because when you look at the damage done to the Conservatives… it has lost voters to Reform.”
Others, like Luke Tryl, a former Conservative aide, acknowledged that while voters may still trust the Conservatives more on economic issues, there remains a clear demand for a robust immigration policy.
Despite internal disagreements, supporters of Badenoch maintain that the party can simultaneously win back right-leaning voters while appealing to centrist supporters from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. One cabinet member claimed that the Conservatives are the only party offering a comprehensive strategy for prosperity coupled with security and opportunity.
As the Conservative Party navigates its uncertain future, the path to regaining public trust will likely involve addressing past errors and demonstrating a commitment to the pressing issues facing voters, such as the cost of living crisis and immigration control. A member of Badenoch’s inner circle summarized the sentiment by stating, “Politics is mostly vibes-based; it’s not driven by detailed policy proposals. The main rule is – don’t be mad.”
The unfolding dynamics within the Conservative Party highlight the complexities of modern British politics as leaders strive to balance divergent factions while striving for a unified vision that resonates with the electorate.
