The construction of the Future Circular Collider (FCC) is becoming increasingly uncertain due to a complex geopolitical landscape, according to physicist and author Michael Riordan. During a recent symposium at CERN, the influential particle physics laboratory near Geneva, experts discussed the implications of a fragmented world order on international scientific collaboration and funding for ambitious projects like the FCC.
CERN has enjoyed a reputation as a global laboratory, achieving significant milestones with the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and other projects. The LHC, primarily built to search for the Higgs boson, was developed during a time of increasing globalization following the Cold War. With contributions from nations such as Canada, China, India, Japan, and the United States, CERN has attracted a diverse scientific community. However, the current geopolitical climate poses serious challenges for future funding.
Plans for the FCC envision a collider exceeding three times the LHC’s size, featuring an electron–positron collider known as FCC-ee, projected to cost approximately $18 billion and expected to begin operations by 2050. A subsequent proton–proton collider, FCC-hh, would follow later in the century. Yet, the geopolitical realities, including Russia’s recent expulsion from CERN and dwindling international collaboration, complicate the financial landscape.
Funding concerns are exacerbated by shifting political attitudes in major economies. The current U.S. administration’s “America First” stance raises doubts about the multibillion-dollar contributions expected from the world’s wealthiest nation, which is also burdened by significant national debt. As illustrated by recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and aggressive political rhetoric, the rules-based international order appears increasingly fragile.
The growing influence of right-wing populism in Europe adds another layer of uncertainty. As European nations face the financial demands of military rearmament in light of Russian aggression, the prospect of funding the FCC becomes less assured. Historical data from the LHC project reveals that less than 12% of its costs came from non-member nations, raising questions about the feasibility of securing a third of the FCC’s expenses from outside Europe.
Despite the challenges, the need for a facility to study the Higgs boson remains critical. The scientific community is eager to avoid a lengthy wait for further advancements in particle physics. CERN’s outgoing director-general, Fabiola Gianotti, has indicated that alternative projects are under consideration, reflecting the European Strategy for Particle Physics.
Three potential alternatives are being discussed: two linear electron–positron colliders requiring only 11 to 34 kilometers of tunnelling, with an estimated cost of around €10 billion, and an upgrade of the existing LHC tunnel known as LEP3, which could be completed for under €5 billion. While LEP3 may offer less energy than linear colliders, it represents a more immediate and manageable option.
Other projects, such as the proposed LHeC and Gamma Factory, could also utilize the existing LHC infrastructure to further research while being less financially demanding. As noted by John Krige during his keynote address at the symposium, CERN was founded not just as a scientific institution but as a response to nationalism and anti-science sentiments prevalent in the past.
In navigating this complex landscape, CERN must strike a balance between ambitious scientific goals and feasible funding strategies. The urgency to develop a “Plan B” is clear, as the global political climate evolves and the stakes for international scientific collaboration rise. The future of CERN depends not only on its ability to attract funding but also on its commitment to fostering a culture of cooperation and innovation within a challenging global context.
