UPDATE: A shocking Newspoll has sent shockwaves through the Liberal Party, revealing that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has overtaken the Coalition for the first time in Australian political history. The poll, released on January 18, 2026, shows One Nation surging to 22% of the primary vote, a dramatic increase of seven points. Meanwhile, the Liberal–National Coalition has plummeted to 21%, marking a historic low as they slip into third place behind Labor.
This unprecedented shift is particularly alarming in the wake of the December 14 Bondi Beach terror attack, which claimed 15 lives and has heavily influenced the political landscape. As the parliament prepares to reconvene, Coalition MPs are expressing deep concern over the implications of this polling data.
Inside the party, the atmosphere is described as “like a funeral” as MPs arrive in Canberra amid fears that One Nation could secure up to six Senate seats in the upcoming election if current trends continue. The Coalition’s internal fears are palpable, with a meeting scheduled for late Monday night to address Labor’s proposed hate-speech and gun-reform legislation related to the Bondi attack.
Despite the grim outlook, some party insiders are urging caution, suggesting that the Newspoll may be an outlier. They reference a separate Resolve poll conducted around the same time, which shows the Coalition ahead of One Nation at 28% to 18%, and maintains the Coalition within striking distance of Labor, currently at 30%.
As these critical discussions unfold, the implications of the poll could reshape the upcoming election landscape. With public sentiment shifting rapidly, all eyes are on the Coalition’s response and its ability to regain voter confidence.
What happens next is crucial: the party must navigate this turbulent political climate carefully. The urgent discussions and decisions made in the coming days could determine their electoral fate as they prepare to face mounting challenges from One Nation and Labor.
