UPDATE: A new survey reveals a troubling decline in confidence among UK rail business leaders, with 64% predicting a contraction in the market over the next year. Conducted by independent polling company Savanta between October and November 2025, the findings indicate a stark shift in the industry as most companies freeze recruitment or cut staff.
Only 12% of the surveyed leaders expect growth, a significant drop from 26% in 2024. The survey of 125 railway business leaders shows an alarming trend, with 62% either freezing recruitment or reducing headcount. Among these, 34% are making redundancies, raising concerns about the future of skilled workers in the sector.
Moreover, 85% of respondents anticipate a hiatus in rail work within the next year, highlighting the urgent need for government intervention. RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan described the survey results as “concerning,” emphasizing the paradox of rising rail passenger, freight, and revenue levels alongside declining market confidence.
“Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling,” Caplan stated. “We have voiced concerns about a hiatus in work as rail currently restructures.”
Despite these grim statistics, Caplan noted that individual businesses feel more confident about their own growth potential, particularly in overseas markets. However, he stressed that without immediate action, the UK risks losing talented professionals and essential skills to other sectors or foreign markets.
The RIA has long warned about the “boom and bust” cycle in rail infrastructure investment, and this survey underscores the urgent need for clarity and support from the government. Caplan called for immediate details on rail enhancement projects within the Infrastructure Pipeline and a clear rolling stock strategy to restore confidence in the market.
This urgent situation demands that major rail clients outline their short- and medium-term spending plans without delay, especially in light of upcoming government spending decisions. Caplan emphasized that decisive action is necessary to mitigate current market confidence issues and to secure a stable future for the UK rail industry as it undergoes restructuring.
As the RIA and its members advocate for a positive outlook, major projects like the Transpennine Route Upgrade and East West Rail are highlighted as crucial to revitalizing the sector. However, the message is clear: without swift government action, the UK rail market may face significant challenges ahead.
With ongoing developments, businesses and stakeholders are urged to stay informed on government plans and industry updates. The future of the UK rail market hangs in the balance, and immediate steps are required to bolster confidence and ensure sustainable growth.
