Vladimir Putin’s regime is facing unprecedented internal challenges that could lead to its eventual collapse, according to prominent dissident and writer Nastya Rodionova. In an interview, she described Russia as a “Frankenstein monster,” created from disparate parts and sustained by a fragile central authority. Rodionova, who has lived in exile in France since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, shared her insights on the growing regional tensions that could further fragment the nation.
Rodionova, a former political journalist and author of the acclaimed novel To Kill Lenin, made the decision to leave Moscow after witnessing the indoctrination of her children in schools. “They were told that Russia was saving Ukrainians from Nazism,” she said. Concerned about her ability to remain silent in such an environment, she chose to start anew, despite the personal sacrifices involved.
Reflecting on her experiences, Rodionova recounted the political protests that erupted in 2011 when Putin announced his return to the presidency. She expressed disappointment at the lack of perseverance among demonstrators, noting, “We saw the political failure of the middle class during the 2011–2014 protests.” Despite initial hope during a subsequent wave of protests inspired by Alexey Navalny‘s anti-corruption campaign, these movements were also stifled by increasing repression.
Growing Regional Discontent
Rodionova believes that the regime’s collapse will stem from its own internal contradictions. She emphasized that the current political system rests on a significant divide between Russia’s diverse regions, which encompass over 190 distinct ethnic groups and are governed from a central authority. The disparity in resources and governance has created a sense of disunity and discontent among various regions, including places like Chechnya and Tatarstan.
“Corruption, poverty, censorship, and even war have not mobilised protest in Russia,” she explained. “But the system rests on a massive gulf between regions.” This divide has become increasingly pronounced as the ongoing war in Ukraine diverts government funds from public services to military efforts. Currently, 56 regions are facing significant budget deficits, resulting in diminished resources for essential services like health care and education.
Rodionova pointed out that the regions of Russia are not merely administrative divisions but are rich in cultural identities and pride. The Kremlin’s attempts to enforce uniformity have often been met with resistance. “Each of these worlds has its own identity,” she noted, suggesting that the potential for regional empowerment could lead to a more equitable distribution of resources and governance.
The Path Forward
As the Russian regime faces mounting financial pressures and regional disparities, Rodionova maintains that its inevitable collapse could pave the way for a more democratic system. “This imperfect metaphor is my way of expressing the inevitability of Russia’s collapse, the downfall of what is essentially a colonial empire,” she stated.
Rodionova’s perspective offers a glimpse into the complexities of Russian society and politics, underscoring the potential for change amid the current turmoil. As the situation continues to evolve, the outcome remains uncertain, but the voices of dissent like hers are crucial in shaping the narrative of Russia’s future.
